Which team will win the Twenty20 World Cup 2009?
After 24 matches in 11 hectic days, the World Twenty20 has come down to four final teams. One of them is just two wins away from becoming world champions, but which?
South Africa
The form …
Obliterated Scotland and West Indies by posting huge totals – 211 and 183 – after being put into bat. When they did misfire in the first innings, struggling to a meagre 128 against New Zealand, they then strangled the opposition in the field to win by a single run. They did the same thing to England in the first innings two days later, and then made a mockery of chasing down the target of 112. They’ve won every which way but lose.Why they might win …
South Africa are the only XI in which every single member is capable of producing a match-turning performance when the other 10 have failed. They are so finely balanced they put Philippe Petit to shame, and hustle harder than a penniless grifter. The spin duo of Johan Botha and Roelof van der Merwe are so canny they’ve combined for 15 wickets at the miserly economy rate of 5.42. Wayne Parnell and Dale Steyn have been scarcely less effective opening the attack. They bat deeper than anyone else, and specialise in scoring quickly during the usually barren middle overs.
But …
There is one obstacle South Africa have not had to cross. They’ve not faced a single good spin attack in any of their four live games – excluding the dead rubber against India. On a Trent Bridge wicket that has started to spin square, they are going to be up against Shahid Afridi and Saeed Ajmal. Can the South African batsmen play spin assuredly as they do pace? If their scoring rate is knotted up in a tangle in the middle overs, a whole new kind of pressure will drop on them.
Pakistan
The form …
Younis Khan’s press conferences have been one of the delights of the tournament. No one has enjoyed the cup more, it seems, than the relentlessly chipper Pakistan captain, every bit as cheery in defeat against England and Sri Lanka as he was in victory against New Zealand, Ireland and the Netherlands.Why they might win …
They have improved as the tournament has gone on, despite reports of fighting within the team that has seemingly cost them the form of two key players, Shoaib Malik and Misbah-ul-Haq, and the ugly allegations about Umar Gul’s peerless death bowling. Old iron gloves Kamran Akmal has been a revelation when standing up to the stumps, making an astonishing seven stumpings and opening the batting with aplomb. The heart of the side, though, is Shahid Afridi, a comic book creation who bowls leg-spin with the cunning of Cardinal Richelieu and then bats with the foolhardy panache of all three musketeers rolled into one.
But …
The only good team they have beaten so far is New Zealand, and with Misbah and Malik failing to contribute, the batting has been lacking and is overly dependent on Akmal and Younis.
Sri Lanka
The form …
The other unbeaten side. They have eased through every match so far, the closest they have come to defeat was when underestimating Ireland, but even then they won by nine runs.Why they might win …
Their bowling attack is unfeasibly strong and it allows them a similar luxury of approach to Kevin Keegan’s first Newcastle United side. It does not matter what they are dismissed for, they will rattle the opposition out for less. If Mendis and Murali do not get you, Malinga will. This allows them to do preposterous things like open the attack with Sanath Jayasuriya and Angelo Mathews. Nuwan Kulasekara is the No1 ranked ODI bowler in the world, and he has hardly even featured in this competition. In Tillakaratne Dilshan they have the cup’s leading run-scorer (53, 74, 46, 0, 48).
But …
They play their semi-final at The Oval, on a wicket that demands sizeable totals. It will be the first time Sri Lanka have played there in the tournament, and their top-order have scored their runs slowly rather than explosively – Dilshan has the best strike rate, 143, and yet he is only 34th in the overall standings – and their underwhelming middle-order of Mathews, Jehan Mubarak and Chamara Silva have made only 120 runs in 14 innings. West Indies on the other hand, absolutely love the venue.
West Indies
Form …
They may have lost to two of the four semi-finalists, but they beat England, Australia and India with ease. They have not had a soft match all tournament, and have been hardened by that. More than any other side there is a sense that the cup campaign has pulled the team closer together. But they have batted second in every one of their five matches, so the challenge of defending a target is alien to them.
Why they might win …
The West Indians adore The Oval. They have beaten England and Australia there in this tournament and, astonishingly, they have only lost one of the nine ODIs they have played at the ground. One of those wins was the famous victory in the final of the 2004 Champions Trophy. Then, like now, they grew through the tournament after a dismal summer campaign in England. Their batting is fearsome, with Dwayne Bravo and Chris Gayle providing an excess of power, while Ramnaresh Sarwan and Shivnarine Chanderpaul are old hands at thriving under pressure.
But …
Jerome Taylor and Fidel Edwards only fire in fits and sparks, while the rest of the bowling attack is cobbled together from a collection of part-time contributions. And their spinners, Sulieman Benn and Gayle, have taken only three wickets between them. If they have to defend, rather than set, a target then their shaky ground fielding may only get worse still.
So…
You would be a fool to wager anything more than the change in your back pocket, as the margins between the sides are Rizla thin. But on the Sportblog bold opinions come cheap and the only thing at stake is a little pride.
My heart says Pakistan, my head says South Africa, my gut says West Indies and my gammy knee is going for Sri Lanka. I’m sticking with my original prediction of South Africa.
No comments:
Post a Comment